China 2060, Rise and Fall

—Google translation—

I review the economic forecasts for the world, the OECD and the IMF. The contrast with the major global banks: Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Santander, La Caixa, Banco Sabadell.

It is striking that, more and more intense, many economic forecasts used econometrics. Is it necessary to anticipate and predict the future economic, business and life of families and individuals. Obvious that the estimates are very long-term vocation. This is sensible: we know that the next decade (2013-2023), for the West and particularly in Spain, will be bad: GDP decreases, first, and stagnation, then. Increased unemployment, to unsustainable levels. We’ll see how long you want the government to maintain the perception that Spain does not need a bailout.

OECD, IMF and research services to major banks in the world agree-with-variations in the global economy will grow by 3% until 2060. Although there will be imbalances in growth between regions. China and India, but are slowing their growth, will continue to grow above 5% -6%. Instead, the European Union, for many years, will remain at 1.5% -1.7%. America will continue the current trend, and rising: 2.2% -2.5% increase gradually to 3% -3.5%. With these levels of growth, coinciding, in a first phase, with Obama’s second term, unemployment will be reduced by five million jobs were created over the next four years. In total, when Obama leaves the White House will have generated ten million private jobs: six and a half million more than were created in Bush’s two terms. This, ahead of the 2016 presidential election, favor the Democratic candidate for the White House. Especially if Hillary Clinton presents his party’s primaries.

In China, where there are no free elections and have just completed their particular and unique form of leadership change, economic forecasts paint a scenario where explanations are needed, enter nuances and adopt different viewpoints. In short: in 2060, China will be the leading economic power of the Earth, followed by the United States. In terms of gross domestic product (GDP). But not in purchasing power of its citizens: in this measure, China has not yet reached parity with the U.S. or with either the OECD or the European Union.

For Chinese leaders, being the greatest economic power on Earth will be good news. Doubled in size to the Japanese economy, the entire European Union and the OECD. Including India, with growth of 5% -6% in GDP in the coming decades-in equation assumes it next to China: two countries will form, increasingly, economic and trade bloc strong. They will also create a block of new English-speaking countries of the Commonwealth and former British Empire. Anglo-Almost no country except the United States, from August 2007 to June 2009, and the UK, with ups and downs, has fallen into recession in recent years. Instead, the European Union has suffered much the crisis and its importance in the coming decades will blur.

The demographic problem greatly aquejará China, the European Union and some Anglo-Saxon countries. With only one child policy of Mao, China will enter into a tailspin in 2060: then, a worker will maintain two pensioners. Rightly, the Chinese, little or nothing spenders in itself, save in his old age thinking. No social or family networks that keep them in old age, the Chinese have much fear of the future. This reality squarely affect the Chinese economy, negatively.

In the last ten years, and its top leader Hu Jintao, China should have achieved the goal of harmonious growth. Did not make it and the Chinese economy and society are full of contradictions and imbalances: much meager savings and consumption, many exports to third countries (United States, European Union) and little expense inside. Huge efforts of workers who work long hours for little pay: even so, are less productive and China is gradually ceasing to be competitive. It’s the price of not knowing invent but copied Apple again in the first week of December 2012 to manufacture profitably in the United States. The Chinese currency is kept artificially undervalued, to keep the pace of exports. But it is unrealistic and shortsighted.

The Communist Party is the vanguard of the proletariat (Lenin, why). And in China marks the dictation: party members-despised and hated, in many cases, by the people they are supposed to protect, because of rampant corruption, are the first to do business, dress well, drive big cars displacement, have possessions that have only Russian and American billionaires.

The new prime sword China, Xi Jinping, has promised a people that has not elected democratically their main task is to achieve prosperity for all. Fix imbalances. Keep the path of growth of the three previous decades and make wealth does not stay in the game, but it reaches the majority of the population. To achieve this, the Liberation Army met and fulfilled, an essential task, which is not saying Kaplan (Foreign Affairs, June 2010), to deal with the United States sometime in the near future, but to maintain order at all costs internal social.

China will increasingly look to itself to restore its economic and social puzzle. United States is a top priority, it is not solving the problems of half the world, but themselves. Obama will increase exports, multiplying by two, and create five million jobs in the way. Hispanics will-sooner than later-legalized and will equip North American labor and parts needed to ensure the future generation. The Chinese model, by contrast, has little tour and expiration date: 2060, or swan song, when they become golden period.

Jorge Díaz-Cardiel. Previously published in Cinco Días, February 26, 2013