Trump overtakes Clinton in the polls: What?

September 7th, 2016 – Article previously published in the blog “US and emerging markets “CincoDí

Yesterday we said that Hillary Clinton was needed to turn 180 degrees to its electoral strategy. Today we know that for the first time, she no leads in the polls, but Trump. It is true that for a minimum difference of two points: Trump 45%, Clinton 43%, says CNN. And it is also true that methodologically, the survey leaves much to be desired: the sample is small (1,000 individuals), the margin of error is high (3.5%), so the result “falls” within the margin of error and those two points of difference, estadísiticamente mean nothing: we can sum 3.5 points or restárselos and would still be within “the statistical truth”. Finally, the survey only takes into account those who say they will most likely go to vote, so it is outside the group of undecided, that of those who now say they would abstain from voting but then change their minds, etc. I little validity to this type of survey. If anything, as would the Spanish politician Alfonso Guerra, “show trends”.

And the trend is what we explained yesterday: the “gap”, the difference between Clinton and Trump in three months has been closing: 20 pp to 10pp, hence to 8, 8-4 and now 2. Cause ? The lack of voter enthusiasm. Only 46% say they are excited about these elections versus the average of 60-64% than they were in 2004, 2008 and 2012. The two candidates, although they have the majority support of their coreligionists (Democrats and Republicans) aroused very little sympathy and one consider it “a liar and dishonest” and the other “a brabucón”. How different consideration of Barack Obama in 2008, with its message of hope!

The results show that the country is polarized and divided into two, not only by ideology but by sociodemographic variables.

If Clinton wants to lead again surveys must move away from its image and be manufactured close to the people. In the case of Trump, just be himself.