July 6th, 2016 – Article previously published in the blog “US and emerging markets” CincoDías.com
On the eve of the conclusion of the Convention of Democratic and Republican parties, at the end of July, voters, through the primaries and caucuses have already shown their preference. Republicans who voted have chosen Donald Trump, for whom nobody would have bet as a winner at the start of voting. With insults, disqualifications, saying what many want to hear so “politically incorrect” and using demagogy and media as speakers, Trump has set 16 other candidates and political professionals, with the exception of Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson . Many except the Bush family who opposed him, now they have no choice but to support him and ask for a vote for him and the money to finance his campaign, although they have to hold their noses, as is commonly it said.
Trump has won his Republican rivals of the party apparatus by an overwhelming majority, calling Bush “turtle” for being labored (slow) in speech; insulting a journalist for being disabled and another for being Hispanic. It has swept saying that ISIS end with a stroke and suggesting that Obama could be an Islamic radical; that will raise a wall with Mexico, which will pay Mexico, which deport eleven million Mexicans (actually mean Hispanics or Latinos, but Trump does not address nuances and does not distinguish between Ecuadorians, Colombians, Guatemalans: for him, all Hispanics are Mexican and certainly “murderers, drug dealers and rapists”). It has no Latino support.
Neither the Muslims, whom he says will ban the entry into the country. African Americans, for lack of a black candidate, are released en masse (88%) in the arms of Clinton: her husband was called “the first black president in history”. Asians feel threatened by Trump and women (51% of the total electorate) despise him, given his disparaging and insulting comments toward them. The vast majority of Catholics sees in him an impostor, like Evangelicals, Protestants and Mormons. The religious question is not on their side, because it has changed five times its stance on abortion and now does not know what he thinks, except that “somehow we must punish the woman who aborts”. Therefore, Trump has alienated women (51% of the electorate), Christians and Muslims, African Americans (12% of the electorate), Asians (8%) and Hispanics (13%). Not seem to have many friends, something he sticks out his chest. For him, the important thing is to win, he says, regardless of the media; that is, the end justifies the means, according to Trump.
Jews are divided. The higher income (Wall Street, Hollywood) are progressive and liberal support and finance to Hillary. Others have the heart and the mind-not divided among his convictions are those of Trump- and its pledge to protect Israel and destroy ISIS and the enemies of the Jews.
What or who stays Trump? With 35% of the white electorate more radically conservative. Extremists people that until now had not gone to vote. Unemployed people who Trump promises quality jobs that will bring China, threatening, incidentally, to break the free trade agreements signed by the United States (NAFTA, Asia Pacific, Europe TTIP future, etc.). Logic, statistics, mathematics, common sense say 35% no candidate has managed to be president. However, pre-election polls say that although six months ago Trump Clinton won by 20 points, now, in July, made by a meager 2%. How is this possible? Because polls show that the traditional Republican electorate, but do not want to Trump (first) let alone loves Hillary and (second) have no alternative: it is Trump or anything. Worse still, Trump … or Clinton!
Hillary enjoys the support of women over 45 years. Until recently most girls supported Sanders. We’ll see if at the Democratic Convention Sanders “lends” its electorate to Clinton. If so, Hillary would have the young majority vote, very numerous this time. And with Hispanic, black, Asian vote, white middle class, unionized workers. one evangelical vote will not take, but perhaps 50% of the Catholic electorate (there are 80 million Catholics in North America) on social issues. It is true that Hillary does not like him, which is seen as “liar, dishonest and boring”, according to polls. But Trump is perceived even worse for insulting collective whole there, except the Jewish lobby, who need funding. In fact, AIPAC finance both candidates. Who will win? We have no crystal ball, but surveys, and these, today, say Hillary will be the first woman president of America.
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