Blog

5/09/2016 – Article previously published in the blog “US and emerging markets “CincoDías.com

In early 2009, when Obama took office as president, assumed that the United States could not, by itself out of the economic recession financial source where he was. Aware that, in his own words then, I published my book “Obama and pragmatic leadership” (Profit, 2010), “we live in a multipolar world in which no single economic or miliary power” Obama launched tackles join forces with the other major economies in the world.

Objective? Coordinate monetary and fiscal policies and reforms that will boost growth. Obama then chose as the first economy in the world with 25% of world GDP by empequeñer the role of the G-8 and instead give much more prominence to the G-20, where emerging countries were-and are, then, were the “mambo kings” and still did not feel the blows of the crisis. China, Russia, Brazil …, which today are suffering with the reduction of international trade and the downturn in the price of raw materials, then aparececían as the lifeline to the world.

What happened it is known by all. In April 2009, in London, Obama took that first step of trying to join efforts within the G20 and at the same time, push the Economic and Strategic Dialogue with China. Things did not go as Obama wanted: United States opted for expansionist policies, free trade, promotion of information technology or ICT to gain in competitiveness and productivity, loose monetary policy, drop in interest rates to stimulate lending and purchase public and mortgage debt by the Federal Reserve. By contrast, the European Union adopted austerity policies and took four years to take monetary measures from the European Central Bank. Emerging countries, left out by their temporary “hubris” were each on their own.

The final result was as follows: seven years later, the United States grew 2.6%, its unemployment rate is 4.9%, has created 15 million jobs and points to a 3% growth in GDP, thanks Obama’s New Deal. The European Union, with its austerity policies grows even 0.3%, the peripheral countries are supported by central and stronger and the UK, with Brexit, leaving the Union.

Emerging countries, BRIC, are either in recession or slowdown franca. Russia decreases to 3.5% and Brazil makes 6% real. China, which needs no less than 7% growth not to enter recession, growing at 6%.

So, the G-20 in China has become three questions: first, Obama -a finishing their mandate and pass the baton to Hillary Clinton and China agree to implement the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions and reverse climate change; between the two powers, generate 40% of global pollution. On the other hand, the United States, Russia and Turkey, in all kinds of meetings, focus their attention on resolving the conflict in Syria.

And finally, Xi-Jinping is abandoned to their fate, asking you to pay attention, to apply the same policies that Obama, worldwide attempted to launch in April 2009. China is about to fall into recession for what will life on it.

But Xi-Jinping is not Barack Obama.