September 6th, 2016 – Article previously published in the blog “US and emerging markets “CincoDías.com
When I came to the United States, almost two months ago, Hillary Clinton won in estimating Trump vote by a margin of more than 20 percentage points. True that both candidates generated’m still doing- polarization and rejection, for different reasons. Trump case I have spoken at length, and I will continue doing. Hillary I’ve always said you need to win over an electorate that in two thirds parties do not trust it considering it dishonest.
The Republican convention in Cleveland was a disaster for the Conservatives: historical party leaders did not attend the meeting, the presidents and former Republican candidates in the last quarter century publicly rejected Trump, there was -fundadas- accusations of plagiarism in speech Melania Trump (by the way, Trump did not write his books but he says yes and soon prove that what I say is true), disunity, and excandidatos as Ted Cruz came forward to openly criticize “their” candidate. Worse impossible. Trump sank in the polls. Shortly afterward, Trump got rid of his first campaign team, which had also been made famous by journalists and disaffected canear at rallies.
Instead, Hillary emerged triumphant in Philadelphia. Unity. Two presidents with very high levels of popularity -Bill Clinton, Barack Obama said it was the best candidate. Minorities, above 80% supporting his candidacy. Bernie Sanders’s fractious had to publicly support Hillary, give their delegates and ask their followers to vote for Clinton. A high percentage of young people now support Hillary, who triumphed in the polls.
And suddenly the summer. In the first weeks, Trump still goofing or rather, getting almost everyone alienating potential allies and voters. It must carry out a second restructuring of its electoral team, which provides surveys and messages: he let go and, magically, begins to increase its estimate of vote. Instead, Hillary falls slowly and 20pp difference, it passes to 10 and then to 4. What is the cause? The way Hillary has handled before the media and the question of “emails” public opinion. Two examples of yesterday, she had said she only used a phone or device. The FBI revealed yesterday that were actually 13: 5 ipads and 8 smartphones, which were destroyed with a hammer as 30,000 emails disappeared. Worse, Hillary Clinton, one of the most intelligent women, says unaware that the letter “C” in their emails from the State Department meant “Confidential”. Nobody believes it. A close friend of mine was with her when Julian Assange (Wikileaks) told Fox that “in October disclose thousands of emails and actions of the Clinton Foundation that will leave Hillary out of the race and sit on the bench.” According to my friend, Hillary was changed the face. Hillary says not remember many of the facts related emails because, at that time had a fall and a strong concussion.
In the end, as usual, hardly anyone is interested in the truth but verisimilitude, the semblance of truth. Republicans attack it with these arguments and, thank God-for Trump walks Hillary- engaged in their own controversies over deportations, walls and others. But if Trump is focused on these issues in the televised election debates, Hillary will have problems. Trump’s aggressiveness will happen over like a tsunami.
Hillary should “reset” his campaign. Refresh to improve its relationship with the media, however much it costs you, since distrusts them (3 months without a press). And intelligently manage the issue of emails. In the CIA there is a saying: “The best way to get a bomb without causing damage is to prevent explode”. Hillary has to defuse bombs Foundation her husband, emails and other charges to come clean to the discussions.
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